Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.294534 0.345088 0.400165 0.464427 0.537139 0.616651 0.709957
2025-04-27 0.211549 0.273795 0.347187 0.439379 0.551307 0.681968 0.845145
2025-05-04 0.158253 0.225845 0.311860 0.427667 0.577617 0.763175 1.007840
2025-05-11 0.118168 0.186544 0.280562 0.416120 0.602873 0.847010 1.185445
2025-05-18 0.082237 0.145080 0.239029 0.384598 0.598298 0.893448 1.323233
2025-05-25 0.055527 0.110559 0.200511 0.350673 0.585708 0.928412 1.451778
2025-06-01 0.039881 0.089666 0.178489 0.337689 0.602163 1.007281 1.652849
2025-06-08 0.028219 0.072219 0.158221 0.323852 0.615668 1.084494 1.862426
2025-06-15 0.021661 0.062708 0.150030 0.329486 0.662484 1.220018 2.177626
2025-06-22 0.014537 0.048918 0.129810 0.308995 0.661523 1.279367 2.381295
2025-06-29 0.010001 0.039270 0.115393 0.296672 0.673528 1.362521 2.634253
2025-07-06 0.006714 0.031170 0.101838 0.283013 0.680892 1.439013 2.885432
2025-07-13 0.004817 0.026402 0.095394 0.284826 0.722109 1.586656 3.285016
2025-07-20 0.003281 0.021673 0.087252 0.280798 0.751123 1.716461 3.669110
2025-07-27 0.002318 0.018434 0.082232 0.283583 0.796254 1.884355 4.143046
2025-08-03 0.001599 0.015536 0.077029 0.284686 0.838368 2.052486 4.636441
2025-08-10 0.000941 0.011879 0.067096 0.269375 0.838822 2.135659 4.975783
2025-08-17 0.000509 0.008752 0.057090 0.250342 0.826231 2.189857 5.264518
2025-08-24 0.000307 0.007038 0.052025 0.245666 0.850471 2.328666 5.740648
2025-08-31 0.000175 0.005570 0.046989 0.239340 0.869217 2.457902 6.210382
2025-09-07 0.000118 0.004911 0.045893 0.247447 0.931029 2.695381 6.933154
2025-09-14 0.000057 0.003665 0.039991 0.234400 0.928049 2.778304 7.329016
2025-09-21 0.000028 0.002841 0.035908 0.227166 0.941424 2.903125 7.829547